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0 WSJ900813-0157 900813-0157. Iraqi Chief Links Kuwait Pullout To Israeli Move --- U.S. Rejects the Initiative, Aimed at Rallying Arabs, And Readies Blockade ---- By Gerald F. Seib and Walter S. Mossberg Staff Reporters of The Wall Street Journal 08/13/90t397 WALL STREET JOURNAL (J), PAGE A3 MDEST FORGN MONETARY NEWS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, TRADE (MON) PETROLEUM (PET) FOOD PRODUCTS (FOD) EXECUTIVE (EXE) STATE DEPARTMENT (STD) DEFENSE DEPARTMENT (DEF) WASHINGTON -- Iraq's Saddam Hussein, his options for endinge400 the Persian Gulf crisise399 growing increasingly unpleasant, assumede401 the rolee462 of embattled Arab hero in offeringe403 his first rough proposale404 for a negotiated ende405 to the confrontatione406 . The Iraqi leader, in an " initiativee407 " designede408 as much to rallye411 Arab public opinione412 as to launche413 meaningful negotiationse414 , announcede415 yesterdayt416 that he will withdrawe417 his troops from Kuwait only if Israel withdrawse418 from the West Bank and Syria from Lebanon. He apparently hopese419 to luree421 supporte422 from Arabs who have spurnede423 him so far by suggestinge424 that Iraq will usee425 its occupatione426 of Kuwait as a lever to solvee427 the Arab world's most frustrating probleme428 , the 23-year Israeli occupatione429 of land claimede430 by Palestinians.
1 Even as Saddam Hussein was searchinge2 for a ploye3 to easee5 his isolatione6 , though, the international pressuree431 against him clickede7 up another notch.
2 The White House yesterdayt432 disclosede8 that Kuwait 's ousted government has formally askede9 the U.S. to enforcee11 the total trade embargoe433 the United Nations has imposede12 on Iraq , allowinge13 the U.S. and other nations to immediately begine15 stoppinge16 ships carryinge17 Iraqi goods.
3 Secretary of State James Baker , speakinge18 on ABC News ' "This Week," saide19 the Kuwaiti requeste20 givese21 the U.S. and other countries "a legal basis for stoppinge22 the exporte434 of oil and that sort of thing."
4 The U.S. maintainse24 that under the U.N. charter, the Kuwaiti requeste25 triggerse26 steps for the collective enforcemente27 of international sanctionse28 .
5 Mr. Baker declinede29 to usee31 the word blockadee32 , but saide33 that " interdictione34 " of Iraqi shipmentse35 would begine435 " almost instantly."
6 In a statemente38 , the White House saide39 it would doe40 "whatever is necessary" to ensuree43 compliancee44 with the sanctionse45 .
7 Other Bush administration officials saide46 that the international naval force in the area -- consisting of American, British, French, Canadian, Soviet, German and Australian ships -- may be usede48 both to stope51 oil exportse436 from leavinge53 Iraq and Kuwait and to stope55 shipmentse56 of food and other goods from goinge58 in.
8 President Bush impliede59 as much yesterdayt437 when reporters askede61 whether the interdictione62 would applye63 to food.
9 The president respondede65 , "Everything, everything."
10 While shyinge67 away from actually usinge69 the word "blockade," Mr. Bush acknowledgede72 that the U.S. and others were tryinge73 to blocke75 shippinge76 to Iraq .
11 "No point getting into all these semantics," he saide78 .
12 "The main thing is to stope81 the oil from cominge83 out of there."
13 The naval interdiction force is part of an overall American strategy that officials say is designed to leave the Iraqi leader with only the stark choice of backing out of Kuwait or launching new attacks to change his situation.
14 Though they insist they are n't trying to lure Saddam Hussein into an attack, officials hope that if he strikes again, the U.S. and its allies will have such an impressive force in place in Saudi Arabia that they will be able to crush him in retaliation.
15 Iraq 's first option, of course, may be simply to sit tight and hope it can endure a trade embargo longer than the West can live without Iraqi and Kuwaiti oil.
16 Speakinge117 on the ABC program, Abdul Amir al-Anbari, Iraq 's ambassador to the U.N. , assertede118 that an embargoe440 on Iraq could plungee119 the U.S. into a " depressione442 " and the rest of the world into an economic " crisise121 ."
17 Iraq clearly is tryinge122 to wooe124 back more Arab supporte125 in case the conflicte128 dragse129 on, hopinge130 that its neighbors eventually will helpe131 it survivee132 a prolonged ware133 of economic attrition with the West .
18 So Saddam Hussein on Fridayt443 triede134 to scaree136 other Arab leaders into supportinge138 him by callinge139 on Arabs to risee141 up in a holy ware142 against leaders who invitede144 American and other Western soldiers into Saudi Arabia to protecte146 the oil-rich kingdom.
19 Then yesterdayt444 , he triede147 to enticee149 Arab leaders with his proposale150 for a diplomatic solutione151 linkinge152 his occupatione153 of Kuwait with Israel 's occupatione154 of the West Bank .
20 The proposale155 also callede156 for replacinge157 American and other Western troops in Saudi Arabia with Arab forces.
21 The Bush administration immediately saide158 it "categorically " rejectse159 the proposalse160 .
22 And President Bush yesterdayt445 , askede161 whether he was at least glad Iraq is discussinge162 negotiationse163 , repliede164 : "I do n't seee165 anything to be pleasinge168 in there at all."
23 American strategists are calculating , though, that the trade sanctions -- enforced by an effective though perhaps undeclared naval blockade -- will hold tightly enough to convince Iraq that it will lose in the long run by simply standing pat.
24 At that point, rather than goe180 through the humiliation of backinge182 out of Kuwait , the Iraqis might well concludee183 that they neede185 to lashe187 out in some way to shakee191 things up.
25 In that event, Saddam Hussein appearse192 to havee196 three choicese194 .
26 The first would be to launche198 the much-feared direct invasione200 of Saudi Arabia , hopinge201 to seizee203 some Saudi oil fields and improvee204 his bargaining position.
27 But that optione205 is growinge206 less and less likely as thousands of American, British, Egyptian, Syrian and Moroccan forces assemblee207 in and around Saudi Arabia to protecte209 the kingdom.
28 The Saudis even have in their possessione210 48 Kuwaiti jet fighters, virtually the entire Kuwaiti air force, which managede212 to escapee214 the Iraqi invasione215 , Saudi officials saide216 .
29 The Saudi "window of vulnerability . . . is closinge446 very fast," Prince Bandar bin Sultan, the Saudi ambassador to Washington , saide218 over the weekendt447 .
30 The second possibilitye448 would be to starte220 a fighte222 with Israel , in hopes that all Arabs would have to movee227 behind Iraq in a fighte228 against their common Israeli enemy.
31 In such an event, Saddam Hussein also might calculatee230 , the Saudis would be under pressuree468 to kicke234 out U.S. troops because of America 's close ties with Israel .
32 Iraq could starte235 hostilitiese699 with Israel either through a direct attacke237 or by attackinge239 Jordan .
33 Israel has publicly declarede240 that it will responde241 to an Iraqi attacke242 on Jordan because it wo n't allowe243 Iraq 's dangerous army to takee703 control of Jordan 's long border with Israel .
34 Iraq 's third attack optione247 would be to starte249 an undeclared ware251 on the U.S. and other Western nations through terrorisme252 .
35 Two Middle East terrorists with records of successful attacks against Western targets, Abu Nidal and Abu Abbas , have ties to Baghdad .
36 And even terrorist groups that opposed Iraq in its war with Iran show signs of swinging behind Saddam Hussein now that he is in a confrontation with the U.S. And Iraq still hase262 thousands of Americans and other Westerners under its control in Iraq and Kuwait .
37 They are n't being allowede263 to leavee266 and could becomee267 hostages.
38 If Iraq chooses a simple war of nerves and economic attrition, the Bush administration knows a long stalemate could try the patience of the American public and the West in general, and could open the possibility that moderate Arabs -- even including Saudi Arabia -- might drop out of the effort against Iraq and accept some deal from Saddam Hussein .
39 But U.S. officials have sizede281 up Saddam Hussein as a man who, despite some recklessness, will backe282 down if he must.
40 "This is a guy who is impulsive, and therefore capable of big miscalculationse284 ," sayse285 one senior administration official involvede286 in managinge288 the crisise289 .
41 The official addse290 , though, that "at the same time, we thinke293 he is someone who is capablee702 of rational judgmentse295 when it comes to power.
42 And when he findse299 something is unprofitable, then one can seee300 certain accommodationse302 ."
43 Thus, administration aides will be tryinge303 to calculatee305 whether Saddam Hussein 's proposede454 diplomatic formula for gettinge307 out of Kuwait representse308 the first signe309 he is searchinge310 for a waye311 out or simply is a public relations stunte313 .
44 There are disagreements among experts about how much pressure will be needed to make Saddam Hussein decide he's up against the wall and whether simple economic pressure will ever be enough.
45 The biggest worry is that if he decides he needs a way out of his predicament but does n't see a face-saving method, he could lash out in dangerous and unpredictable ways.
46 U.S. officials claime327 they already seee328 signse329 Saddam Hussein is getting nervous.
47 In the first days after President Bush announcede331 the dispatchinge455 of U.S. troops, they note, the Iraqi leader madee333 several nationwide addressese334 indirectly -- having them reade336 by a television announcer.
48 "That showse337 he's nervous about pinpointinge338 his location, either because he's afraid we'll finde340 him, or that internal enemies will," sayse342 one U.S. official.
49 The unpredictability of Iraq 's leader is a principal reason the U.S. is going to such great lengths to build a mammoth force in and around Saudi Arabia .
50 Pentagon officials saye349 the goale350 is to pute352 40,000 troops in the region by the end of the montht456 .
51 But the administration is n't puttinge354 any upper limite700 on how high the force could goe357 after that, calculatinge359 that it would be a mistakee361 to underestimatee363 and an advantage to keepe365 Saddam Hussein guessinge366 .
52 U.S. commanders in charge of planninge367 for Middle East crisese457 have indicatede368 in the past that they were capablee369 of deployinge370 as many as 300,000 troops.
53 And the U.S. is takinge372 similar steps to ensuree374 that its naval force is adequatee701 to carrye376 out a blockadee377 of Iraq and supporte378 a ware379 if necessary.
54 Over the weekendt458 , Pentagon officials confirmede381 reportse382 that a fourth U.S. aircraft carrier -- the John F. Kennedy -- and its powerful group of support ships could heade461 for the Middle East within a few days.
55 Three other carriers and their escort vessels already are stationede383 within striking distance of Iraq or are steaminge384 toward the area.
56 But unless the military situation changese385 drastically, military officials saye386 , the most likely plan will be for the Kennedy to eventually replacee388 the carrier Dwight D. Eisenhower , which has been on patrole389 since Marcht702 and was schedulede391 to returne393 to port before hostilities eruptede394 in Kuwait .
57 --- Andy Pasztor contributed to this article.